According to @BullTheoryio, prior alt cycles began after ALT/BTC bottomed and broke its downtrend in Q4 2016 and Q4 2020, which preceded strong alt outperformance in Q1–Q2 2017 and Q1–Q2 2021, respectively, based on the author's historical analysis and chart work. According to @BullTheoryio, ALT/BTC has been in a nearly 4-year downtrend that appears to have bottomed in Q4 2025 and is now close to a breakout, with the RSI at a record oversold level and the MACD turning green after 21 months, signaling a potential bullish crossover. According to @BullTheoryio, the Russell 2000 has broken above its prior all-time high in Q4 2025 and is holding, which the author frames as a risk appetite proxy that also preceded the 2017 and 2021 alt rallies. According to @BullTheoryio, the anticipated 2024 setup was delayed because the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was still contracting and liquidity was tight, but both began improving only toward late 2025, with potential regulatory clarity into 2026 aligning the conditions that historically supported alt rallies, though no outcome is guaranteed. According to @BullTheoryio, traders should watch for an ALT/BTC trendline break with MACD bullish confirmation and sustained risk-on tone in the Russell 2000 as key confirmations before positioning for potential alt outperformance versus BTC.

According to @BullTheoryio, the Russell 2000 has broken its 2021 high for the first time in nearly four years, signaling renewed institutional risk-on appetite in high-beta small-cap equities. Source: @BullTheoryio, Oct 4, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, similar small-cap breakouts preceded the 2020–2021 altseason, and with BTC and ETH already near their all-time highs, this setup historically aligns with accelerated altcoin performance. Source: @BullTheoryio, Oct 4, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, five supporting catalysts add conviction to the risk-on thesis: expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2025, a reported surge of over 20 crypto ETP submissions in a single day, Treasury buybacks exceeding 6 billion dollars in a week, Uptober seasonality strength, and Q4’s historically strong returns across crypto and stocks. Source: @BullTheoryio, Oct 4, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, the Russell breakout is the first real institutional signal this cycle, suggesting crypto’s rally could be larger than anticipated if risk capital rotation continues. Source: @BullTheoryio, Oct 4, 2025.